Overview
Aside from being a huge hockey fan, I am also very much a follower of CFB. I understand what is going on, and can generally interpret models and stats I see online, but I don't know as much about them intuitievly as I do hockey and hockey stats. However, I always see discourse about stating your prior beliefs when creating rankings in CFB. Probably so much moreso in CFB because there is an incredibly arbitrarty ranking system, unlike the rigid standings points or wins in professional leagues. And it's more important in CFB than CBB because basically any team who has a realistic chance to win the championship will make the playoffs. In football that is not necissarily the case, so the rankings are more important. Not saying they aren't important in CBB, as a fan of a bubble team in Pitt, I would have loved if the rankings had fallen our way the past few years, but alas. Because of all of that discourse, I wanted to track various priors in an objective manner throughout the season.
To measure success in as objective way as I could I just wanted to keep it simple with an ELO model. The way ELO works means you "take more" points from teams if you upset them/weren't supposed to win, but loose fewer points if you were already supposed to get blown out in that game and were ranked way below the opponent. Now also, all wins are not created equal, squeaking out a win on a last minute 60 yard field goal (looks at you Steelers) is not as impressive as controlling play on the way to a 25 point win. So I'm stealing a little bit from the incredibly popular world rugby rankings, and taking how much you win by into account. There is a scale factor in the ELO equation that you use to control how much a team takes or looses from a win or loss. For one score games I set it to +/-10, for two score games I set it to +/-25, and for three or more score games I set it to +/-50. Plus if you win, minus if you loose, of course. Those numbers might seem low, or a bit off to those more familiar with ELO. I've never worked with it before, so I was unaware of any standard conventions, so I set the mean to be roughly 500, and the max should end up somewhere around 700 by the end of the season.
Then the last thing I needed were a bunch of prior rankings to look at. I used a few very simple ones, like taking zero information into account and setting every team equal to 500, or only the conferences where I set every SEC and B1G team to 600, every ACC+Notre Dame and Big 12 team to 550 and all G5 teams to 400. Then there were ones where I used outside sources like the AP poll where I gave the top team 650, every team ranked below that 3 points lower all the way through the "others receiving votes" section, then every other team a flat 433. I also looked at Vegas championship odds before the season and translated those into percentages into scores ranging from 306 to 703. I also looked at the ESPN FPI rankings, though these weren't the final preseason ones, I heard they got changed, but I don't think they would change the outcomes *that* much. Finally I looked at roster talent. I'm not sure what the standrd roster talent measure was, but I used 247's recruiting rankings on the roster page for each team. I'm not sure if that is just the HS ranking, or their ranking as a transfer if the team got them as a transfer. I used their rating score (the actual number, not the number of stars, it was easier to scrape) then took the weighted average by positional value for each team, then translated those averages to a scale from 409 to 609. Since then I've just been tracking every game and seeing how the rankings change after each week. Even the coaches poll ones are very different already to the actual coaches poll. I also set every FCS team as a base 250 ranking that won't change. Obviously that is not a perfect solution, NDSU is much better than Duquesne or RMU usually, but I wasn't going to sit here and rank each and every FCS team. Though there is a great guy on Twitter who I see rank every single CFB team each week who I was trying to find for a while earlier today but just couldn't find.
Results
Obviously the season is not over yet, so this project is still a work in process, but I will be posting the updated rankings each week both here and on my twiter with some small comments about what interests me. I will try to update them by Sunday every week, but it may fall to Monday depending on how busy I get on the weekend.
Obviously these are just a list of all the priors I will be tracking throughout the season, so this is kind of the most important part and also the least important part of this project. Obviously then even ranks are just sorted alphabetically, then the conference basead ones are just SEC and B1G teams alphabetically. Roster talent, Texas, OSU, Bama, and Georgia are a clear top 4 favorites, then there is an everyone else of a bunch of solid teams. The discourse around the FPI and coaches poll has also been incredible so far, so I'm just not going to add to that. Finally the Vegas odds seem to be another decent ranking of teams that I think are probably pretty good at football.
Week 0 rankings there was hardly any change, all the winning teams shot up in the even ranks because they were the only teams to play, and Kansas jumped up a bunch in the FPI.
After week 1 there was a lot more change, especially in the conference based and even ranks. Those don't really matter as of now because the cupcake schedules and difference in GP, so I'm going to wait a few weeks for them to settle before discussing agian. Obviously OSU jumped Texas in the rankings where they weren't already above them, but nobody really took that many points because they were all so close to each other, and the teams that won big were expected to win big. Bama dropped the most of the big teams, but even in roster talent they barely dropped, but more importantly they got a lot closer to the rest of the pack, so their room for error now is much smaller. Miami and LSU got punished for winning huge games in some rankings tells me that I need to decrease the difference of the impact of winning 3 score games vs 1 score games, or increase the amount of points between the top and bottom teams, but I can't totally resart now, so I have to hope it will even itself out once conference play starts and there are a lot of big games.
Vegas champ odds barely changed, Michigan dropped because of their loss to OU, and Indianna jumped up after a big win. In the coaches poll, ND got punished this week again by not playing, and Bama gained back a lot of what they lost against FSU. Then there was a bunch of shuffling towards the back of the top 25. Michigan and Florida down of course, then ASU down after their poor performance vs Mississippi State, while A&M jumped up a few spots. Not really anything surprising in the FPI other than USC getting a big jump and BYU going WAY up after a big win over Stanford. Roster talent didn't really change much either, PSU and USC up a bit near the top, and Arkansas and Deion's CU joining the top 25 after wins over Arkansas State and Delaware respectively.
Not much change again this week. Was a pretty chalk week other than Clemson losing to GT. We do see Clemson dropping a few spots, but probably not dropping as far as we will in the actual polls. I've noticed my ELO doesn't punish teams as much for a loss as we do in real life. If you lose a close game to a top 10 team here, you'll still probably be viewed as a top 10 team, but in the real life polls teams might drop way out. I wanted to make wins and losses even, so each win isn't overly rewarding, but that means each loss isn't overly punishing. Maybe I could make something where losses mean more the higher you're ranked, but I'm not sure how that would work. Also, in this the top teams are usually more spread out, so when one does lose, they won't drop that much in terms of rankings. That could be viewed as a positive in certain years, but this year it seems like there aren't any dominant teams that deserve to be ranked much higher than anyone else. Also, I do genuinely think that, if you had ND top 10 preseason they should absolutely still be ranked despite the 0-2 record. They've lost by a combined 4 points to two teams that will probably be top 10, sure you gotts win close games, especially when it comes to playoff time and these are the teams you have to play, but they would still be favored at a neutral site over a lot of teams. Also, respect Diego Pavia, the top DAWG, and Vandy.
Some big swings lower in the rankings again this week. Mizzou with the big win over SCar bringing them up, a totally different Iowa team is climbing back up after an early loss. Despite the Clemson win not looking as good for Ga Tech right now, they look solid this year. Indianna and Texas Tech probably had the two biggest wins of the week, they both move up big, Texas Tech looks like a favorite to make the playoffs from the Big 12 given the rest of their schedule. Oklahoma looks good, and Auburn dropped, though I do think they will be fine this year still. Miami should be the top team in the ACC this year, and I think are legit national championship contenders, especially with this week not being Beck's best performance. And again, respect Vandy, they look pretty legit this year.
Bama is back, maybe? Auburn had another close loss and isn't dropping much. Memphis jumping up that much is kind of surprising, but they did have a big win this week. Not much super notable movement otherwise, of course the big game this weekend was PSU-Oregon, but that going to OT means both teams are similar and their ratings won't change a ton. Also not shocking that PSU lost yet another big game... Notre Dame is also still good, despite a few close losses to also good teams early.
Bama is back. I know they only beat Vandy, but 2 ranked wins in a row, and I think Vandy this yr with Pavia is somewhat legit. Also, Penn State... fraudulent. When was the last time a 20+ point dawg won against a top 10 team. Especially one coming off a loss looking for a revenge game, I feel like this loos could totaly sink their system to like a 7-5/8-4 level, much less a playoff contender. Texas also with a bad loss to Florida. I know their defense is very good, and obviously Arch has struggled this year, but you just have to be able to hold out and beat the 2025 Florida Gators. I also like Miami being behind Notre Dame in most rankings despite beating them early, but they are very tight, and I doubt Miami would be heavy favorites on a neutral field. Carson Beck is so back though. Also Clemson getting a big W vs UNC (though that hasn't been a huge challenge to do this year) jumps them back up in my rankings, though I don't think they're any good. Georgia Tech dropping out on the bye is a shame because I do think they're solid this year, but we'll see. Also shout out North Texas!
My favorite rankings this week are definately the conference based ones. OSU still at 1, I'm not 100% sold they are the best team in the country, but they certainly have the best resume/are most deserving to be ranked 1 right now. Also isn't propping PSU and Texas up because of preseason biases that clearly aren't applicable anymore. Also love the Iowa and Washington respect, I think they're both solid top 25 teams. I would back Notre Dame to be a borderline top 10 team still though, despite the two incredibly close losses, and Miami should be way higher as well, of course. Vandy is too high there as well, they should be in the top 25, but closer to where they are in the FPI preseason ranks, not the conference based ones. Also, USF should still be ranked in more of the rankings as the top G5 team in my opinion, though they are usually second behind an also very good Memphis.
First time Pitt has potentially deserved to be ranked since week 9 or so last year, a few weeks into the collapse. Though I don't think they actaully do get consideration unless they win the next 2 games heading into the Notre Dame game. Oregon dropping again this week despite the big win is more just a result of the big loss the week before. USF is still probably te most interesting team in the country to mem they just keep winning. I still like the conference based results the best at this point, I would agree with the top 5. It only weighed teams based on conferences and dropped all other preseason biases that are useless at this point. Also incredibly dissapointed that Memphis lost to UAB because that game vs USF this week could have been the game of the week. GT should be higher across the board, and shoutout JMU, 6-1 with their only loss to a ranked Louisville team who just knocked off Miami.
OSU is really, really, really good at football. Iowa is quite abit overrated, they are just the definition of mid I feel, a mid-alte top 25 team like Pitt. I would hate to see Pitt play them in a bowl game because I don't want to watch my team vs Iowa, but I think that would be a solid game. Miami has really struggles recently, but should probably still be higher.
JMU and Memphis are both good and gonna be fighting for the G5 spot in the playoffs, but a sneaky candidate is North Texas. I really like Mestemaker and think he can lead the team to a playoff eventually, especially in the unlikely world where he stays. Not much movement among the P5 teams, Utah with another big win this week, but they're still a longshot for the playoffs. However, if UVA wins out, they could make the ACCCG and be the ACC rep.
Georgia with a huge W over Texas should knock Texas out, and solidify Georgia as a playoff lock barring a massive collapse or big loss to GA Tech. Vandy-Bama still being so neck and neck is still incredibly funny to me. USC with a nice win, setting up a big clash with Oregon in a few weeks. ND is also making a push here with a big rivalry win.
Notre Dame with another big win this weekend over my Pitt Panthers, unfortunately Love is quite good at football, and Pitt sucks in big games. Miami is also climbing back up, but those two brutal losses late in the year are gonna be tough to overcome in the ACC. OU with a big win over Bama could have big implications down the line as well with OU chasing the pack as well.
Penn State jumping back up with the new coach bounce is incredibly funny to me, especially because their season has been dead for a while now. I also think OU is underrated, and nobody outside the top 15 in the conference weighted rankings is a realistic playoff candidate without winning their CCG. The ACC is also just a total mess right now with Pitt, SMU, UVA, Duke, GA Tech, and of course Miami all relevant to the CCG discussion. A bunch of mid fighting for one spot, unless maybe Miami can squeak out an at large with some help in the next few weeks.
Heading into CCG weekend, OSU, IU, and Tech are locks and should be 3 of the top 4 seeds barring a BYU win. Winner of UGA-Bama should be 4th imo, especially if Bama wins big. Though based off how they handled Auburn I don't think that's likely. Texas A&M and Oregon both have valid arguments as well if Bama wins. Notre Dame also should be in, without too much controversy becuase these teams are simply not the same as they were in August, and this team has gotten so much better. Utah and USC both might be underrated by consensus considering neither have any chance. Ole Miss already lower even without ELO taking into account that they lost Kiffin. ACC is really hoping for a UVA win because Duke isn't ranking ahead of JMU, North Texas, Tulane, or even Boise.
I also put in the initial playoff rankings as the "priors" (starting in week 11 after the first rankings). These feel a lot mroe "true" to what will play out, aside from Notre Dame being that high of course. Obviously the two losses early and the lack of a big name win are keepnig them back, but they have just been murdering everyone they've played since those losses. They are simply not the same team they were in August-September, and are absolutely one of the ~5 best teams in the country right now. BYU-Utah feel like they should be playing in the Big 12 CCG this weekend for a win and your in situation with Texas Tech getting an extra bye and wrapped up top 4 spot. Miami, while killing teams recently does have two losses that are far worse than either of ND's losses, and both to teams that it feels like ND would beat by 25+ at the current moment. That being said, Miami has also shown that they can beat basically anyone on their day. They have some of the higher highs, but also some of the lwoer lows. While ND hasn't really had any low lows, but, aside from those two games early haven't had the opportunity to have any high highs other than blowing every team out of the water, which they've done. I feel like it would have been really beneficial for Miami to play Vandy in Hawai'i this weekend, but alas, that was never realistically going to happen. Oklahoma is another big difference between what the committee has done with them vs what their resume has said they've done the past few weeks. Texas+Ole Miss losses, but the Bama win, kind of surprised they're as low as they are based on ELO, those two losses shouldn't drop them nearly as much as the Miami ones did, but I suppose they don't have any big scoreline wins. I also don't think anyone below them, outside of CCG winners should really be considered for playoffs (sorry Texas, don't lose to Florida and you're in)
One other thing I noticed, now that the regular season is done, I was playing around with the starting values and multipliers and basically no matter what I did either very little changed, or the rankings all looked like the even ELO and JMU and UNT were top 10 teams. I'm sure there is a fine line somewhere between the "standard" values, and the heightened ones that I was playing with, but I couldn't find it. The first thing I did was switch to 1500 mean, either by multiplying by 3 to also increase variance, or just add 1000 to keep variance tight. But for both I changed the multipliers to 25/50/100 and saw little change. Then I went overboard and doubled those to 50/100/200 for 1/2/3+ score games, and got very similar results to the no conferences where the priors didn't really matter. The average ELO k-factor (multiplier) is around 40 for lower ranked players on chess.com, and only decreases for higher ranked players, so if I had just copied their system completely, hardly anything would have changed over a 12 game season. That shows how important priors are, and also the difference in college sports, particularly football to most other aspects of life. One or two losses, which could boil down to one or two plays, could be season ruining, which is incredibly tough on college kids, who aren't exactly known for being the most consistent people in the world. But with so many good teams in the country, those tiny margins are what can make or break a season. There's a rant in there about mega conferences as well, but I think any fan would agree that they have not been a positive for the sport. I want to talk about how those tiny margins, or even the clearly big ones between Notre Dame or Miami and Pitt, shouldn't make or break seasons. Make bowl games important again, the national championship shouldn't be the only thing that matters for teams. Sure for Alabama or Ohio State they should have National Championship expectations, and I'm not saying no other team should shoot for that. What I am saying is that if you had told a Pitt fan after the WVU loss that they were gonna go 8-4 and probably be looking at a solid bowl game they would have been ecstatic. Same for Navy and USF, almost completing the Florida sweep, and going 9-3 with a W over Army should be celebrated. Arizona going 9-3 after going 3-9 last year, and losing Tet, ASU going 8-4 after losing Skatt both very respectable seasons. Missouri State and Delaware both becoming bowl eligible in their first years in the FBS. Kennesaw State and Jax State fighting it out in the CUSA championship game should be celebrated even if it likely won't have playoff implications. UConn going 9-3 is great for their program, and even Kent going 5-7, maybe shouldn't be celebrated, but is worth mentioning as a massive step up for them. New Mexico and UNLV both putting up great seasons in the MW as well. JMU obviously another good story, but Marshall is another team I like what they are building towards after getting dumped by their coach and a ton of players, rebounding quickly and going 5-7 is promising for the next few years.
ND should be in over Bama. Don't get blown out and you woulnd't have to question it. I genuinely think ND could have won it all this year with the way they've been playing. Sure they haven't played the toughest schedule, but they've killed everyone they did play, which is something Bama, Oklahoma, and A&M can't say (and A&M's schedule was a joke this year as well. The H2H W over ND is their best win!). Though I also think them not playing in a bowl game is soft, and we DESPERATELY need to bring back the importance of bowls. I also hadn't noticed how big of a lead OSU had built up by just smoking everyone this year. Obviously Indiana deserves the #1 spot, sometimes the numbers are just a bit slow to catch up. Duke definitely doesn't deserve to be in, but I think there was an argument to be made for Boise over Tulane, which never would have happened. Also a 0 bid ACC would have been funny, but Miami does also deserve to be in, right on that border. But I do agree with the sentiment that none of the border teams should really be upset with getting "snubbed". You lost multiple games you could have won. You weren't the best team in your conference. There is absolutely zero requirement for you to be in the playoffs.
Data
My data came from a variety of sources. I just found the preseason coaches poll online. I started this before the preseason AP poll was released, so I just went with the coaches as a generic "media" poll. Then I got FPI from ESPN directly, as an analytical model ranking the strength of these teams. Then of course the Vegas odds telling me what the betting market thinks preseason, I don't remember which book I used, but I don't think that particularly matters because I'm sure they all changed slightly depending on the day you looked at it. Then for roster talent, as I mentioned, I used 247's roster ratings page. I created my own team ranking by looking at the positional value from Over the Cap, because I wan't sure how 247 calculated their positional rankings. Finally I got the game schedules from FBSchedules.com, and I update the game scores every weekend using ESPN.